Canada has long focused on Arctic sovereignty.
Now commercial navigability is helping steer the conversation.
Discover how a changing Arctic is reshaping security, commerce, and maritime strategy.
Breaking the Ice
The Cold Reality of Arctic Geopolitics and Commerce
RAUSI Fireside Chat
The Northwest Passage has long been strategically important. What is changing is its potential as a commercially viable shipping route—and what that could mean for Canada.
As sea ice retreats, shipping activity expands, and international interest in northern trade and resources grows, navigability is becoming more than a question of geography. It is becoming a question of sovereignty, security, commerce, infrastructure, environmental risk, and Canada’s ability to advance and protect its interests in the Arctic.
Could commercial navigability of the Northwest Passage become a vital national interest for Canada?
That question follows naturally from RAUSI’s May Fireside Chat, which explored the relationship between capital, competition, and national security. If global trade and state security are fundamentally interconnected, nowhere is that relationship becoming more apparent than in the Arctic.
In this Fireside Chat, maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano and strategic advisor Richard Martin examine the Northwest Passage through both commercial and strategic lenses.
Together, they will examine:
- what makes an Arctic route genuinely navigable;
- how changing conditions are altering the economics of northern shipping;
- the capabilities required to monitor, protect, and sustain activity in the region; and
- what these developments could mean for Canada, its allies, and the future of Arctic maritime strategy.
Following the discussion, participants will have an opportunity to ask questions during a live audience Q&A.
Thursday, 10 September 2026
1900 hours (Mountain) via Zoom
(1800 PST / 2100 EST / 0300 CET 11 Sept)
Richard Martin is a strategic advisor, author, and former Canadian Army infantry officer with 26 years of service. He has commanded personnel on operations and served on tactical, operational, and strategic staffs, including roles in capability development, acquisition, training, and project management.
Richard is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles and the founder of The Strategic Code: See. Understand. Act. His work helps leaders, decision makers, and strategists make sense of consequential situations in which other actors are pursuing purposes of their own. He focuses on seeing the situation clearly, understanding the logic and capabilities of the actors involved, testing the assumptions shaping one’s own position, and identifying purposeful, executable action. His work spans business, government, defence, and international affairs, including the strategic challenges confronting Canada in a changing world.
Dr. Salvatore R. Mercogliano is a maritime historian, educator, and former merchant mariner specializing in maritime history, shipping, sealift, and maritime industry policy. He is Associate Professor of History and Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University in North Carolina, as well as an adjunct professor at the United States Merchant Marine Academy.
A graduate of SUNY Maritime College, Dr. Mercogliano holds a Bachelor of Science in Marine Transportation and a merchant marine deck officer licence. He sailed with the U.S. Navy’s Military Sealift Command, including service aboard the hospital ship USNS Comfort during the Persian Gulf War. He later earned a master’s degree in maritime history and nautical archaeology from East Carolina University and a Ph.D. in military and naval history from the University of Alabama.
Through his widely followed What’s Going On With Shipping? platform and frequent media appearances, he explains how shipping, maritime chokepoints, infrastructure, and international events affect global trade and security.
Navigating the Arctic
As the Arctic changes, navigability is becoming an increasingly important consideration for Canada and its allies. The ability to safely and reliably move people, goods, and vessels through Arctic waters influences commercial opportunities, maritime strategy, national security, and the exercise of sovereignty.
This polar map highlights the principal routes shaping the discussion.
Is the Northwest Passage becoming a viable commercial shipping route—and what would that mean for Canada’s security, sovereignty, and economy?
Watch the video to find out.
Maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano joins strategic advisor and former Canadian Army officer Richard Martin for a wide-ranging discussion on the changing strategic and commercial importance of Canada’s Arctic.
The conversation begins with the fundamental differences between Canada’s Northwest Passage and Russia’s Northern Sea Route, before examining what increasing Arctic navigability could mean for global shipping and Canada’s ability to operate in and exercise control over its northern waters.
From there, the discussion moves well beyond shipping. Topics include Arctic sovereignty and freedom of navigation; Russia and China’s growing activity in the region; hybrid and grey-zone threats; surveillance and defence; icebreakers and naval capabilities; resource development; deep-water ports and supporting infrastructure; and the economic realities that could determine whether Arctic shipping becomes commercially viable.
The audience Q&A takes the conversation even further, exploring compulsory pilotage, salvage and tug capacity, navigational safety, prohibitive marine insurance costs, environmental risk, resource extraction, and the infrastructure Canada would need if traffic through the Northwest Passage continues to grow.
A recurring question runs throughout the discussion:
The Arctic has always mattered strategically. As it becomes more accessible, how will the way it matters change?
Watch for details of our next RAUSI presentation.
RAUSI Fireside Chats bring together leading subject matter experts and the public for non-partisan online discussions exploring the issues shaping Canada’s security, defence, and strategic interests.
Each session features an engaging conversation between experts, followed by audience questions and discussion. Topics range from military affairs and international security to geopolitics, economics, technology, and the evolving challenges facing Canada and its allies.
By encouraging thoughtful dialogue and diverse perspectives, RAUSI Fireside Chats help Canadians better understand the complex issues influencing today’s security environment.
Learn more about RAUSI and our mission.