5 February, 2026
As part of RAUSI’s ongoing exploration of how national security strategies translate into real-world outcomes, Andrzej Fałkowski examines one of Europe’s most strategically compressed and consequential regions: the Baltic Sea.
In Baltic Security Architecture, Fałkowski argues that contemporary security in the Baltic is no longer determined by fleet size or formal declarations alone. Drawing on lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian war—particularly in the Black Sea—he highlights how geography, reaction time, missile range, reconnaissance, and the protection of critical infrastructure increasingly shape deterrence before open conflict occurs.
The article reinforces a core theme of RAUSI’s Beyond National Playbooks discussion: that modern strategy is less about static documents and more about integration across domains—land, sea, air, cyber, and space—and across institutions, including NATO and the European Union. In this environment, signalling, readiness, and coordination matter as much as political intent.
Fałkowski challenges the notion of the Baltic as a passive “sea of peace,” instead framing it as a closed operational system under constant hybrid pressure, where security is contested daily below the threshold of war. His analysis offers insight not only into regional defence, but into how allied strategies are tested in practice.
Baltic Security Architecture by Andrzej Fałkowski as originally published on defence24.com