22 June, 2023
War and Warfare in Ukraine: what have we learnt about the geo-political ramifications of war from the character of recent warfare?
All wars are fought for political objectives. What are those objectives in the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Have they changed over the past year? Has a new character of war yet been revealed in the fighting? MGen Chip Chapman, CB (Ret'd) explores these and other issues arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Following a 40-minute presentation, the audience is encouraged to challenge and discuss with relevant questions. These will be non-partisan discussions aimed at generating thought-provoking responses allowing all parties to become better informed on security and defence.
Videos
Watch the full presentation with MGen Chip Chapman, including Q&A. Presentation was held 24hours ahead of Yevgeny Prigozhin's move on Moscow.
| 00:00:00 | Opening Sequence |
| 00:00:29 | Introduction/About RAUSI (Karen Storwick, MSM) |
| 00:01:24 | Introducing featured Speaker Major-General Chip Chapman, CB (Ret’d) (Major Qentin Innis, CD (Ret’d)) |
| 00:02:49 | MGen Chip Chapman begins presentation |
| 00:04:24 | Key Concepts: Leaders may change; Vital interests rarely change; Geography never changes |
| 00:04:54 | Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev |
| 00:06:56 | Russia’s Vital Interests: Need to regain lost territories; Reestablish Russia as a great power; Diminish U.S. global influence |
| 00:07:34 | Strategic Objectives: Dividing and deterring NATO; Dividing and weakening the EU; Increasing leverage over U.S. and allies |
| 00:09:22 | Russia’s Vital Interests: Need to regain lost territories and spheres of influence |
| 00:11:15 | Key Concepts: Geography never changes |
| 00:12:16 | War vs. Warfare |
| 00:16:23 | “Land for Peace”, UN Article 4(2) |
| 00:18:58 | Sustainable Neutrality: Ability to trade space for time; Large armed forces; security guarantees |
| 00:19:47 | Why fighting ceases: Decisive military victory; Improbable military victory; Unacceptable costs |
| 00:20:52 | Russia underestimated key variables: Will the Ukrainian’s fight? How well will they fight? How long will they fight? |
| 00:21:30 | Factors for Success: Control of the air; Shock action; Surprise; Offensive reconnaissance |
| 00:23:54 | Control of the Air: Electronic warfare/drones |
| 00:25:23 | Control of the Air: Air defence battle |
| 00:28:16 | Character of War: Nagorno-Karabakh Confrontation, September 2020 |
| 00:29:44 | Character of War: Operation GUARDIAN OF THE WALLS, May 2021 |
| 00:32:12 | 5 Myths of War: Wars will be short; Special Forces can do it all; You can win wars from afar; Armies fight wars; Armies are easy to create |
| 00:34:43 | Changing Environments: Personal technology risk |
| 00:35:33 | Changing Environments: Evolution of air power |
| 00:36:21 | Changing Environments: Combined arms warfare |
| 00:38:38 | Changing Environments: Disinformation campaigns |
| 00:41:59 | Question and Answers begin |
| 00:42:25 | Q&A: Impact of positioning of nuclear weapons in Belarus? If nuclear weapons are deployed in Ukraine, what options do other countries have? |
| 00:45:56 | Nuclear Imminency Warning Signs: Nuclear threats from the Kremlin; Putin personally blamed within Russia; Movement of tactical weapons to the field; Intercepted intelligence of intent to use |
| 00:49:04 | Q&A: How effective has Ukrainian information operations been over the last couple of years? |
| 00:54:35 | Q&A: Was Putin opportunist of Biden pulling out of Afghanistan? Will Western countries tire of supporting the defence of Ukraine, as they did with Afghanistan? |
| 00:57:48 | Q&A: How successful has the Ukrainian counter-offensive been? Do you have a prognosis about the outcome? |
| 01:03:04 | Q&A: Are we looking for a “1917 moment” when Russia’s armies will fragment and collapse? |
| 01:06:05 | Q&A: Can you see NATO using nuclear deployment against Ukraine as an “imminent armed attack” to invoke Article 51? |
| 01:10:47 | Q&A: This has been perceived as a European war. What’s your take on India, China, and sub-Saharan Africa? |
| 01:18:44 | Thank yous and closing |
| 01:19:33 | Closing sequence, upcoming events, outtake |
Watch Joe Howard's introduction to the presentation to find out more about the event.
| 00:00 | Introduction |
| 00:30 | What is the Russo-Ukrainian war's impact on NATO's expansion plans? |
| 00:49 | Is Turkey's refusal to ratify Sweden's membership a political measure undermining a collective defence military-centric treaty regime? |
| 01:14 | Was China's challenge to the legal status of Ukraine a message really just intended to reinforce China's position regarding Taiwan? |
| 01:45 | Could mission failure in Russia's military campaign enable a 1917 moment in Russia's future domestic politics? |
| 02:16 | What are key lessons identified/to be learned by NATO from Russia's strategy and tactics? |
| 02:23 | Closing and registration details |
About the Presenter
Chip Chapman joined 2 PARA in 1981, and commanded 6 Platoon, B Company in the Falklands war. He stayed on as OC MMGs from Sep 82-May 85 which included command of Forkhill in Northern Ireland. After instructing at the Platoon Commanders Division (PCD) he was Adjutant 2 PARA, and susequently OC D company (a rifle company) during the residential NI tour from 1993-95. Chip Chapman commanded 2 PARA from Aug 99-Nov 2011 after a stint as 2IC 1 PARA.
He was COS 5 AB Bde and instructed at both the Army and Joint Services Staff Colleges. His final 10 years of military service were mainly involved in counter-terrorism, working closely with UK and international agencies to counter Irish and international terrorist threats, including Al-Qaedi and laterly ISIS concluding with an appointment as Senior British Military Advisor to United States Central Command in Tampa, Florida responsible for geo-political and geo-strategic analysis and contingency planning in the Middle East. He retired from the military in 2013 after 33 years service.
His post military career has involved writing including a successful book (Notes From A Small Military), and authoring “The Chapman Review” – a strategic analysis of “Police Discipline in England and Wales” for the Home Office which was laid before the Westminster parliament in December 2014. He has further consulted on strategy execution and high performance team development. Most recently, he has been a regular ‘talking head’ on TV/radio (Sky News, BBC News, CNN, GB News,Times Radio, LBC, BBC Radio stations and ITV Good Morning Britain) as an analyst/commentator on terrorism, defence, cyber, Ukraine and Middle East strategies.