SPOILER ALERT: A Framework for Analyzing the Remnants of Toppled Kleptocracies and the Forces of Reform
Russia-Ukraine ConflictBy Sarah Chayes, 31 January, 2024
Disponible en français :
Excerpt: Purpose of the Assessment
Recovery from kleptocratic rule is more frequently the exception than the rule. A change of political leadership is an essential first step. but insufficient on its own to ensure a transition out of kleptocracy. Even in contexts where incoming leaders demonstrate political will for pro-integrity reform. numerous country experiences give testament to the deeply embedded nature of corrupt networks. structures and practices.
The departure of a kleptocratic government should be understood as a rare-and almost certainly fleeting-"window of opportunity" for thoroughgoing pro-integrity reforms. whose enactment will nevertheless require a fight.1 Remnants of displaced corrupt networks and would-be successors will jockey strenuously to thwart bona fide reformers. Old habits and hard-earned cynicism will quickly reassert themselves. Such contexts therefore call for strategic thinking and swift. adaptive and creative moves, in contrast to "steady-state" pro-democracy programming.
This assessment framework is intended for just such "window-of-opportunity" transition contexts. It is intended for use by reformers. researchers or practitioners to identify and assess the lingering or reconfiguring kleptocratic networks that might act as "spoilers," undermining progress toward a government of integrity acting in the broadest possible public interest. as well as rival networks that perhaps used anti-corruption rhetoric to gain power, while aiming merely to replace the prior network with their own personnel. The methodology identifies data sources. suggests a set of questions for explorations and presents options for analyzing and depicting kleptocratic networks. It is a comprehensive tool meant to cover a multiplicity of challenges that arise in post-kleptocratic transitions. but at the same time offers a menu of options adaptable to different contexts and situations. or time. security or resource constraints. The assessment that is implemented on the basis of this document can therefore take a holistic approach or focus on priority elements, depending on the particular context.
Recognizing that the leaders who succeed a kleptocratic network face myriad challenges. the framework also presents initial considerations for designing a response strategy. Given the impossibility of tackling all of the challenges simultaneously, the methodology emphasizes the selection of specific "strategic variables" that might produce an outsized impact in the struggle against kleptocratic networks.
Finally, this framework can also be integrated into general political economy analyses that local or international actors are performing. regardless of timing. It can be particularly relevant to pre-window-of-opportunity situations. so as to gain time for reformist actors once transition is underway. Given the murky and dynamic nature of these transitions, a one-time snapshot of the context may be less appropriate than continuous tracking. In this case. the framework and methodology can also be adapted for use as a monitoring tool to follow shifts in motivations. challenges and opportunities.
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